The midweek EFL schedule is another intriguing one for League One and League Two where there are a number of sides hoping to get going in the early season. Tuesday night’s card offers plenty of form already and plenty of teams still to find their first league victory and a couple of games that will likely be tough to avoid.
There’s a lot of uncertainty as the season’s just begun. Three or four games should be enough to get a feel for how a team is developing, but it’s too soon to use those games as a measurement and not a definitive. All of this needs to be taken into account together, be it recent performances, goals scored and conceded, data on expected goals, home advantage or quality of opposition.
The top picks for Tuesday’s games are Huddersfield, who are expected to overcome a struggling League One side, and Bromley, who are looking to get a goal against Leyton Orient, as well as a draw between Doncaster Rovers and Notts County. At League Two level, Rochdale and Shrewsbury (and Northampton and Crawley) appear to be perfect for the draw, while Chesterfield look the better of the two in a fixture against Gillingham.
It was also reported in the original Betfair preview that it was preparing a 20/1 treble on the three League Two picks.
League One Predictions
Huddersfield vs Oxford United
Prediction: Huddersfield to win
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
Huddersfield have had a promising start to League One, conceding seven points in their first three league games. That puts them in a top ranking for sides expected to test for the top half of the division.
One of the most interesting things to have been noticed during Huddersfield’s first few games is the way in which they find opportunities without having to take control. It can be very helpful in a division that relies on transitions, set pieces, and time in the final third to determine the outcome of the game.
Joe Taylor has already made a valuable attacking contribution, including a pair of goals against Cambridge in the last time he had the ball. His skill at getting into the box, in his case Huddersfield, when his play is contained by his opponents is another danger.
The home side is always consistent, so it is certainly Oxford United that present a different kind of challenge.
It is also backed by the underlying numbers. In their game at MK Dons, Huddersfield have been able to generate a lot of quality opportunities without necessarily dominating the play with an xG of 2.28.
Pick: Huddersfield to win
Bromley vs Leyton Orient
The teams are expected to score. A prediction would be that both teams will score.
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
This fixture is fairly attractive from a goals perspective, but it’s not as pretty from a straight match-winner perspective.
Bromley join the fray and come from a commanding 7-2 defeat to Sheffield Wednesday. It was clearly hurting their scoreboard, but also revealed their tendency to be vulnerable when the opposition gets into dangerous territory.
Leyton Orient have been displaying the same sort of attitude in the first few weeks of the season. Their games, at both ends, have often seen goals scored, and in two of their first three games, both sides had scored and averaged over 2.5 goals.
It’s not only that reason, though, to think about the BTTS market. Bromley have put in points in every matchup listed in the preview and Orient have been adept at finding the end of the ball when they are in possession.
The original analysis had suggested to watch for Orient’s early expected assists figures as a red flag for Bromley’s defence. Bromley’s own form means that they will have chances at home, too.
Not betting both teams to settle the bet for three points is perhaps a more tidy bet, as it can be argued that it is impossible to guess who will win.
Pick: Both Teams To Score
Doncaster Rovers vs Notts County
Prediction: Draw
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
This could be one of the closest on the League One wildcard.
Doncaster have already played two of their first three and Notts County have built up a little bit of a reputation for playing close games. As such, the draw is an interesting pick at a relatively high price.
Here’s another reason to consider this market: the numbers. The home attacking numbers have been impressive for Notts County, while the away xG has been much lower. The gap between them can make a difference if a team is traveling to play a team that can sit deeper.
The match against Barnsley wasn’t a good sign for Doncaster either. Both sides were lacking in attacking intent today and it may prove to be a difficult match to break if they both keep playing on the conservative side.
This is the type of fixture where the outcome can stay flat for a considerable length of time. Both sides aren’t promising enough to make a confident straight win selection.
Pick: Draw
League One Treble
If you’re planning to go for more than one, these are the three League One choices:
- Cambridge to defeat West Brom.- Liverpool FC to face Arsenal.
- Bromley and Leyton Orient are equal threat with both to score.Both sides are even for goal at Bromley vs Leyton Orient.
- Doncaster vs Notts County — Draw
The initial Betfair preview had the combined value on the treble at approximately 9/1, but odds can change a lot in the lead up to kick-off.
League Two Predictions
Rochdale vs Shrewsbury Town
Prediction: Draw
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
Rochdale have had a poor start to the season, and have been eliminated over the last three games. Tuesday’s home game is especially crucial as it would add to the club’s pressure as another loss.
Shrewsbury have had a mixed start, however. Their recent win over Salford has been a positive outcome following their big EFL Cup loss to Fleetwood, but a bottle of milk cannot compensate for the loss of one big wicket.
The big challenge is if either one side can maintain dominance in the game.
Rochdale’s attacking numbers in their early matches have been fairly weak with the pre-match showing their xG stands at just 0.87. Shrewsbury haven’t looked particularly menacing in the final third, either.
This has us looking at a game where there may be limited opportunities. Rochdale have the advantage in their own home and a vested interest in not losing another game whilst Shrewsbury might be content to stay small.
So what is most logical would be a draw.
Pick: Draw
Northampton Town vs Crawley Town
Prediction: Draw
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
Northampton has not been performing well so far. They are yet to win their first match and have been a poor front of goal in the process.
The undefeated run continued until they drew 1-1 with Gillingham recently, which didn’t indicate a big change in their attack was imminent. The match was played in difficult conditions and there was not much to be gained in entertainment but Northampton did show some resilience.
Crawley have also had a rocky start to their season. They’ve had their challenges and they’ve had their encouragement, such as away two at Rochdale.
The top issue for anyone thinking about moving to Northampton as a home banker is that they don’t have any objectives. If a team has won just once in their first games then short win prices are hard to defend.
Crawley might also not be strong enough to control the game, and that’s what the draw comes into play.
It’s as if the two sides haven’t been able to help themselves get in a good rhythm this season.
Pick: Draw
Chesterfield vs Gillingham
Prediction: Chesterfield to win
Kick-off: Tuesday, 1 September, 19:45
Chesterfield emerged as the clear best straight winner of the players from League Two clubs.
They are not yet at the standard that would be expected of a side that had any chance of making the play-off. They are not quite there yet when it comes to a side that could be considered a play-off contender but, of course, there is plenty of time for Paul Cook’s side to improve.
Lee Bonis is a player to keep an eye on. He hit 17 goals last season and continues to be a key cog in Chesterfield’s attack. But he suffered a head injury this weekend and his availability must be confirmed prior to kick-off.
The home side will also be seeking some answers after a win at Rotherham was criticised by fans. But Cook cast doubt on some of that negativity and says that the team is still developing.
The away side doesn’t seem to be a particularly dangerous place for Gillingham to defend. Their early away xG has been under 1.00, which is no good when going up against a Chesterfield side with aspirations to be near the top.
Chesterfield will have quality but need to assert themselves early to be able to pick up three points.
Pick: Chesterfield to win
The 20/1 League Two Treble
The multiple that comes out in this selection is the standout multiple, based on a set of three match scenarios:
- Rochdale vs Shrewsbury — Draw
- Northampton vs Crawley — Draw
- Chesterfield to beat Gillingham
This is a three-legged League Two spread with odds having been set at 20/1 at the original Betfair site, but they are likely to change and should always be checked prior to placing any wagers.
The appeal is rather simple. The first two games are a pair of teams whose performances are confusing at the best of times and Chesterfield give a better home-win leg.
Remember, too, that the acc will need each pick to fall. A treble can thus payout substantially more than the three separate bets, but also has a much higher risk factor.
Key Factors To Consider Before Betting
Early-season form
The structure of League One and League Two can rapidly evolve in the early months of a campaign. A side that has a poor record may be a side that has a great deal to offer once they allow their new additions to get up to speed.A team that performs poorly might be a team that has a great deal to offer once their new players get up to speed.
So a quick glance at the score is not sufficient. The strength of the opposition and the opportunities afforded should also be taken into account.
Home and away performance
The home advantage is still important in the EFL, especially when the team is one that benefits from set pieces and the supporters.
Away performance is not necessarily a sign of weakness though. There are teams that are more at ease when they don’t have to play with the ball.
Expected goals
xG can be used to shed light on seemingly baffling results. A team can win with a relatively small number of opportunities and another lose despite having created many opportunities.
The combination of xG and goals can provide a better indication of the likelihood of a team being sustainable.
Goals at both ends
There are very few fixtures where BTTS will be more appealing than predicting a winner, and Bromley v Leyton Orient is one of these.
Many times the BTTS market can provide a more straightforward approach to the match when both teams are scoring and giving goals.
Team news
These injuries can have a significant impact, particularly in early season when teams might have a comparatively low number of players.
An example of this is the Lee Bonis in Chesterfield. His availability may affect the attacking balance of the game, therefore please consult with the team news prior to making a selection.
Odds movement
The cost of footballs can change from the time they’re published until they’re on the pitch. The odds in the initial Betfair article were given as accurate at the time of the writing and could change.
Therefore, don’t assume that the quoted odds are fixed and final.
Best League One and League Two Picks
| Match | Prediction | Main Reason |
| Huddersfield vs Oxford United | Huddersfield win | Strong opening form and attacking numbers |
| Bromley vs Leyton Orient | BTTS | Both sides have shown scoring potential |
| Doncaster vs Notts County | Draw | Closely matched sides and draw trends |
| Rochdale vs Shrewsbury | Draw | Limited attacking numbers |
| Northampton vs Crawley | Draw | Northampton’s scoring problems |
| Chesterfield vs Gillingham | Chesterfield win | Home advantage and stronger attacking potential |
Final Verdict
The Tuesday EFL card is a combination of more straightforward singles and more risky multiple selections.
The match-up between Huddersfield and Oxford United is the top League One game, while Bromley vs Leyton Orient is an appealing alternative market. The draw is the preferred option for Doncaster vs Notts County, as it is a difficult contest to split.
With both Rochdale up against Shrewsbury and Northampton against Crawley in League Two, there is a possibility of a stalemate in both fixtures. Chesterfield are the clear favourite to beat Gillingham.
That gives the original headline 20/1 League Two treble of Rochdale draw, Northampton draw and Chesterfield win on the prices that were quoted in the original Betfair preview.
These are only predictions and not guarantees as with the rest of football betting. Factors like odds can turn the situation around, news can change a team’s circumstances and a random moment can make an EFL game completely different. If one decides to bet, he or she should follow a rule of setting a limit on the amount bet and playing accumulators as a high risk wager.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What are the best League One picks?
Looking at the best League One picks, Huddersfield v Oxford United looks like a winner, while BTTS in Bromley and Leyton Orient and a draw between Doncaster and Notts County are the best options.
2. What to choose for the League Two squad?
The big pickups in the League Two are the midweek draws at Rochdale vs Shrewsbury and Northampton vs Crawley, plus a midweek Chesterfield triumph over Gillingham.
3. Which match do you think will be a draw?
There are three games that are likely to be drawn — Doncaster vs Notts County, Rochdale vs Shrewsbury and Northampton vs Crawley.
4. In the world of football betting, what does BTTS stand for?
BTTS” stands for “Both Teams to Score.” If both teams score a goal or more during the match a BTTS Yes prediction wins.
5, Which team do you think can be the strongest?
Chesterfield’s bet against Gillingham is viewed as one of the better value bets, aided by the home side and attack.
